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US Economic Snapshot
Key indicators at a glance - click any card to explore the full data series
Inflation Friction Index · -
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/100
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CoolingTarget ZoneElevatedSticky
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CPI - YoY %
Core PCE - Fed target
Real Rate - FF − CPI
5yr Breakevens - Market expectation
Pricing Pressure Funnel
Inflation doesn't appear out of nowhere - it travels through three distinct stages before hitting your wallet. When oil spikes or factories pay more for raw materials, those costs flow downstream into the services you use every day. Understanding where pressure is building - and where it's stalling - tells you how long inflation will last and what the Fed will do next.
1Supply Push
Upstream Cost Pressure
Energy and raw material costs set the floor for everything else. When oil is expensive, trucking, manufacturing, and food production all get more expensive too - that cost gets passed down the chain within 3–6 months.
WTI Oil YoY-
PPI YoY-
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2Service Anchor
Sticky Transmission Layer
Rent and wages are the hardest parts of inflation to reverse. Unlike oil prices, landlords don't cut rents when commodity costs fall - and workers rarely accept pay cuts. Once these costs rise, they tend to stay high for 12–18 months.
Shelter CPI YoY-
ECI Wages YoY-
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3Psychology Floor
Expectations Anchor
If people expect prices to keep rising, they do - because workers demand higher wages and businesses pre-emptively raise prices. The Fed watches this stage most closely: once inflation becomes a self-fulfilling belief, it takes a recession to break it.
5yr Breakevens-
Michigan Sentiment-
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Inflation Data Series

CPI - Year-over-Year %

The Consumer Price Index tracks the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services - food, energy, housing, transportation, and medical care.
The Fed targets 2% annual inflation. Above that signals the economy may be overheating; below that suggests weak demand or deflation risk. CPI also drives cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security and TIPS bonds.
Watch for crossings of the dashed 2% target line. Gray bands mark NBER recessions. The 2022 peak near 9% was the highest in 40 years - the Fed responded with the fastest rate hike cycle since the 1980s.
FRED · Monthly

PCE & Core PCE - YoY %

PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) measures price changes across a broader range of goods than CPI. Core PCE strips out volatile food and energy prices to reveal the underlying inflation trend.
The Fed officially targets Core PCE at 2%, not CPI. Core PCE tends to run slightly below CPI due to methodological differences. When the two diverge significantly, it signals whether inflation is broad-based or driven by specific volatile categories.
The gap between PCE and Core PCE shows the contribution of food and energy. A large gap indicates commodity-driven inflation. Watch Core PCE relative to the 2% line - that's the Fed's actual policy benchmark.
FRED · Monthly

Federal Funds Rate %

The federal funds rate is the overnight lending rate between banks, set by the Federal Reserve's FOMC eight times per year. It is the primary lever the Fed uses to control inflation and economic activity.
Rate changes ripple through the entire economy - mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, and business borrowing all respond. Higher rates slow inflation but can trigger recession; lower rates stimulate growth but risk overheating.
Watch for hiking cycles (rapid rises) and cutting cycles. Dashed lines mark the start of major hike cycles. The 2022–2023 cycle was the steepest since Volcker raised rates to fight the 1980s inflation.
FRED · Monthly

Real Interest Rate %

The real interest rate is the Fed Funds Rate minus CPI inflation. It represents the actual cost of borrowing in purchasing-power terms, after inflation erodes the nominal rate.
A positive real rate means policy is restrictive - borrowing costs exceed inflation, which slows economic activity. A negative real rate is accommodative, effectively subsidising borrowers. The Fed needs positive real rates to sustainably reduce inflation.
Zero is the key threshold. The 2020–2022 period saw deeply negative real rates (near −6%) as inflation surged while the Fed held rates near zero. The subsequent hike cycle moved real rates firmly positive.
FRED · Computed

CPI vs Core PCE

A direct comparison of what consumers experience (CPI) versus what the Fed targets (Core PCE). Both measure inflation but use different methodologies and basket compositions.
The gap between these two gauges matters for policy. When CPI runs well above Core PCE, inflation is likely commodity-driven and may be transitory. When Core PCE is close to CPI, price pressures are broad-based - and harder to bring down.
Watch the spread between the two lines. A large gap (CPI above Core PCE) indicates energy and food are driving inflation. Convergence toward the 2% target signals the disinflation process is working.
FRED · Monthly

Producer Price Index - YoY %

The Producer Price Index measures the average change in prices received by domestic producers for their output. Unlike CPI which measures what consumers pay, PPI measures what businesses receive - capturing inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers.
PPI is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. When input costs rise for producers, those costs eventually pass through to consumers via higher retail prices. Sustained PPI increases above CPI signal margin compression for businesses or future consumer price acceleration.
Watch PPI relative to CPI. When PPI runs well above CPI, businesses are absorbing costs - margin compression ahead. When PPI falls below CPI, businesses have pricing power. PPI turning negative signals deflation risk in the production pipeline.
FRED · Monthly · PPIACO

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is the difference between the 10-year nominal Treasury yield and the 10-year TIPS yield. It represents the bond market's consensus expectation for average annual inflation over the next decade.
This is the market's inflation forecast - not an economist's model. When breakevens rise, bond investors demand more compensation for expected inflation, pushing rates higher. The Fed watches this closely as a real-time gauge of whether inflation expectations remain anchored.
The Fed's target is 2%. Breakevens above 2.5% signal the market doesn't believe inflation will return to target - bearish for bonds. Breakevens below 2% suggest deflation fear - bullish for duration. Rapidly rising breakevens are a red flag for bond portfolios.
FRED · Daily · T10YIE
Labor Leverage Index · -
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/100
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Employer PowerBalancedWorker LeanWorker Power
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Unemployment - U-3 rate
Wage Growth - AHE YoY
Participation - LFPR %
Underemployment - U-6 rate
Labour Transmission Funnel
The labour market moves in a sequence - demand for workers comes first, supply responds, and the cost of labour adjusts last. Understanding which stage is under pressure right now tells you whether the economy is still creating jobs, whether workers have room to re-enter, and whether wages will keep driving inflation. Each stage has a different lag before it shows up in the Fed's decisions.
1The Appetite
Labour Demand
Payrolls measure whether employers are actively hiring. Strong demand here is the engine of everything else - it pulls workers off the sidelines, tightens the unemployment rate, and eventually bids up wages. When demand cools, the rest of the labour market follows within 2–4 months.
NFP MoM (k)-
3-Month Avg (k)-
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2The Availability
Labour Supply
Participation and underemployment measure how much labour is actually available. High participation means fewer workers on the sidelines - the pool of available talent is shallow. High U-6 means quality jobs are scarce even when the headline rate looks fine. Supply sets the ceiling on how tight the market can get.
Participation Rate-
U-6 Underemployment-
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3The Price of Talent
Labour Cost
Wages are the last stage of the transmission - they only rise meaningfully after demand has outpaced supply for several months. But once wages accelerate, they are the hardest part of inflation to reverse: workers don't accept pay cuts, and businesses pass the cost on. This is the stage the Fed watches most closely.
AHE YoY %-
ECI Wages YoY %-
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Labour Market Data

Unemployment Rate %

The unemployment rate measures the share of the civilian labor force that is jobless and actively looking for work. Surveyed monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of the Current Population Survey.
The Fed's dual mandate includes maximum employment alongside price stability. Below ~4% is considered full employment. Rapid rises signal economic stress; slow post-recession declines indicate labour market scarring.
Gray bands mark NBER recessions - unemployment almost always spikes at their onset. The dashed line marks the ~4% full employment threshold. Watch the rate of change: a rise of 0.5pp over a few months is more concerning than the absolute level.
FRED · Monthly

Wages & Salaries - YoY Growth %

Year-over-year growth in wages and salaries paid to US workers, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts. Reported quarterly.
Wage growth above inflation means workers gain real purchasing power. Wage growth running hot feeds into price inflation - making it harder for the Fed to reach its 2% target.
Compare to the CPI rate. When wages grow faster than prices, real wages rise. When wages trail inflation (as in 2021–22), living standards erode despite nominal gains. Wage growth above 4% with inflation below 2% is the ideal scenario.
BEA · Quarterly

Non-Farm Payrolls - Monthly Change (k)

Monthly change in total US non-farm employment, in thousands of jobs. The headline number from the BLS Employment Situation report - released the first Friday of each month and one of the most market-moving releases in the world.
NFP is the most closely watched monthly read on labour demand. Strong job growth signals a healthy economy and can keep the Fed on hold or hiking. Weak prints - especially two or more in a row - often trigger rapid repricing of rate expectations.
Green bars are job gains, red are losses. Sustained monthly prints above 150k are considered healthy. Below 100k signals slowing. Negative readings outside a recession are rare and alarming. Initial estimates are often revised significantly in subsequent months.
FRED · Monthly

Labor Force Participation Rate %

The share of the civilian noninstitutional population aged 16+ that is either employed or actively seeking work. It measures who is actually engaged with the labour market - not just who is unemployed.
Low unemployment can mask a weak labour market if millions have simply stopped looking for work. A falling LFPR alongside low unemployment signals "hidden" slack - workers sidelined by discouragement, caregiving, or disability.
Pre-pandemic, the rate peaked at ~67% in 2000. COVID triggered a sharp drop; recovery has been partial. Compare today's rate to the pre-pandemic level to gauge how much labour supply has permanently left the market.
FRED · Monthly

U-6 Underemployment Rate %

The broadest BLS measure of labour underutilisation: includes the officially unemployed (U-3), marginally attached workers (those who want work but have stopped searching), and part-time workers who want full-time jobs.
U-6 captures hidden labour market distress that the headline rate misses. During recoveries, U-6 often stays elevated long after U-3 falls - reflecting workers trapped in part-time roles. A wide spread between U-6 and U-3 signals underemployment as a structural problem.
U-6 typically runs 3–5pp above U-3. A narrowing spread means full-time employment is being restored. A widening spread means job growth is low-quality. U-6 below 7% historically indicates a genuinely tight labour market across all dimensions.
FRED · Monthly

Average Hourly Earnings - YoY %

Year-over-year change in average hourly earnings for all private-sector employees. From the BLS Employment Situation report - released monthly alongside NFP. More timely than BEA wages data, which is quarterly.
Wages are the largest cost for most businesses and a direct driver of services inflation. The Fed's informal threshold for wage-neutral inflation is ~3.5% - above that, wage growth tends to feed into prices.
Compare to CPI - real wage growth is AHE minus inflation. Above the red dashed CPI line means workers are gaining purchasing power. Watch for deceleration: AHE falling from 5%+ toward 3.5% is a key milestone in disinflation.
FRED · Monthly
Growth Momentum Index · -
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/100
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ContractionSlowingSoft LandingMomentum
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GDP Growth - QoQ annualized
Industrial Production - YoY %
Retail Sales - YoY %
Capacity Util. - % of capacity
Economic Engine Funnel
Growth doesn't happen all at once - it moves through a sequence. Factories produce first, goods flow through global trade, consumers buy, and GDP records the result. When the stages are aligned, growth is broad and durable. When they diverge - GDP rising while factories contract - the expansion is narrowing, fragile, and typically closer to its end than its beginning.
1The Factory Floor
Industrial Input
Industrial production and capacity utilization measure whether the physical economy is expanding. Factories are leading indicators - they cut output before GDP turns negative and recover before the broader economy does. Divergence between IP and GDP is one of the earliest warnings of a growth regime change.
Industrial Production YoY-
Capacity Utilization-
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2The Global Pipeline
Trade Flow
Exports reflect foreign demand for US goods; imports reflect US domestic demand for the world's output. The trade balance determines whether global commerce adds to or subtracts from GDP. Trade flows also reveal dollar strength, tariff effects, and how integrated US growth is with the global cycle.
Trade Balance ($B)-
Direction-
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3The Final Sale
Consumer Demand
Retail sales are the most direct monthly read on consumer demand - whether households are actually spending the income they earn. Consumer spending is 70% of GDP. When retail growth diverges from income growth, it signals either a drawdown of savings (unsustainable) or a genuine shift in confidence (durable). This stage determines how long the current growth trajectory can last.
Retail Sales YoY-
vs Wages-
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Growth Data Series

GDP Growth - QoQ Annualized %

Real GDP growth rate, annualized - the total inflation-adjusted output of the US economy. Reported quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with advance, preliminary, and final revisions.
GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity. Two consecutive negative quarters is the informal definition of recession. The Fed, Treasury, and financial markets all key off GDP for policy and investment decisions.
Green bars = expansion, red = contraction. Use the regime overlay to compare the current path against the 2007 pre-GFC deceleration or the 1995 soft landing. Advance estimates are often revised by 1–2pp in subsequent quarters.
FRED · Quarterly

GDP Components - Annualized % Change

GDP broken down by expenditure: Consumer Spending (~70%), Private Investment, Government Spending, and Net Exports. From the BEA National Income and Product Accounts.
Consumer spending is the engine of US growth. Private investment is the most volatile component and leads turning points - it falls before recessions and recovers before expansions. Net exports reflect global demand and dollar strength.
When investment turns sharply negative while consumption holds, watch for potential recession. Government spending often offsets private weakness during downturns. Net exports becoming less negative means the trade deficit is narrowing.
BEA · Quarterly

Real GDP per Capita - YoY %

GDP adjusted for both inflation and population growth - the best single measure of average living standards. A positive reading means the average American is producing and earning more in real terms.
Headline GDP can grow simply because population grows. Per capita GDP strips that out. Sustained per capita growth raises living standards; stagnation means the average American is getting poorer in real terms even if the economy is nominally expanding.
Short negative dips happen regularly and recover quickly. Watch for multi-quarter sustained negative trends - those signal genuine deterioration in living standards. Compare to headline GDP to see how much of growth is population-driven.
FRED · Quarterly

Industrial Production - YoY %

Federal Reserve index measuring output from manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Released monthly, it's one of the four series the NBER uses to date recessions.
Industrial production is a leading indicator - it typically turns down before GDP does, and recovers before overall output picks up. Manufacturing weakness often precedes broader economic slowdowns.
Watch for sustained negative YoY readings - a drop below zero for 3+ months has historically been a reliable recession warning. Compare to retail sales: if both are declining together, consumer and producer sides are contracting simultaneously.
FRED · Monthly

Retail Sales (ex Food Services) - YoY %

Monthly advance retail sales excluding food services - a proxy for consumer spending on goods. Excludes services, which make up a larger share of spending but are harder to measure monthly.
Consumer spending drives ~70% of GDP, and retail sales is the timeliest monthly read on goods consumption. Sustained weakness signals consumers pulling back - often the first sign a slowdown is hitting Main Street.
Individual months are volatile. Watch the 3-month trend. Sustained negative YoY readings beyond 3–4 months have historically preceded recessions. Compare to wage growth - if wages rise but retail is flat, consumers are saving rather than spending.
FRED · Monthly

Capacity Utilization %

The Federal Reserve's measure of how much of the US industrial capacity - manufacturing, mining, and utilities - is actually being used. Expressed as a percentage of total potential output.
High utilization means factories are running near full tilt - inflationary pressure builds. Low utilization means slack in the system - businesses have little incentive to invest in new capacity.
Readings above 80% historically precede inflation and investment booms. Below 75% signals significant economic slack. Watch for sharp drops - they often precede or accompany recessions as demand collapses and factories idle.
FRED · Monthly

Trade Balance - Goods ($ Billions)

The difference between US exports and imports of goods. A negative value (deficit) means the US imports more than it exports. From the Bureau of Economic Analysis, reported annually.
The US has run a persistent goods deficit since the 1970s. A widening deficit can reflect strong domestic demand, a strong dollar, or structural trade patterns.
Watch for sudden large swings - driven by tariffs, dollar moves, or commodity prices. The deficit widens in expansions and narrows in recessions. Exports and imports together show the scale of US global trade engagement.
BEA · Annual

Exports of Goods ($ Billions)

Total US goods exported annually - the dollar value of physical products sold to foreign buyers. From the Bureau of Economic Analysis, reported annually in the National Income and Product Accounts.
Export growth adds directly to GDP and reflects US competitiveness in global markets. Exports are highly sensitive to the dollar - a stronger dollar makes US goods more expensive abroad.
Sustained export growth signals healthy global demand and a competitive exchange rate. Watch for sudden drops - often triggered by recessions in trading partners, dollar spikes, or tariff escalations.
BEA · Annual

Imports of Goods ($ Billions)

Total US goods imported annually - the dollar value of foreign products purchased by US consumers and businesses. The US runs a persistent goods deficit, reflecting its consumption-driven economy and global supply chain integration.
Rising imports subtract from GDP accounting but reflect domestic demand strength. Falling imports in a recession signal demand collapse. Import prices feed directly into inflation, especially for goods categories like electronics and apparel.
High and rising imports alongside weak exports widens the trade deficit. Sharp import spikes near tariff announcements reflect front-loading. When imports fall faster than exports, the deficit narrows and becomes a GDP tailwind.
BEA · Annual

Durable Goods Orders - YoY %

Durable Goods Orders measures new orders placed with US manufacturers for goods expected to last 3+ years - aircraft, machinery, computers, vehicles. Released monthly by the Census Bureau, it captures business investment intentions before production begins.
Business investment in capital goods drives productivity and future GDP growth. When companies order more durable goods, they're signaling confidence in future demand. Sustained declines signal businesses are pulling back on investment - a leading indicator of economic slowdown.
Watch the ex-transportation and ex-defense versions for a cleaner signal. Aircraft orders (Boeing) cause large one-month swings that distort the headline. Core capital goods orders (non-defense, ex-aircraft) is the version most watched by economists and the Fed.
FRED · Monthly · DGORDER

New Orders: Manufacturing - YoY %

New Orders for Manufacturing measures the total value of new purchase orders placed with US manufacturers across all industries. It is a broad leading indicator of factory activity, capturing demand for manufactured goods before production and shipment occur.
New orders are the pipeline of future manufacturing output. Rising orders mean factories will ramp up production - positive for industrial employment and GDP. Falling orders signal future production cuts, inventory drawdowns, and potential layoffs in the manufacturing sector.
Compare to Industrial Production (INDPRO) to assess whether current production is keeping pace with orders. A widening gap between orders and production signals either a backlog building (positive) or demand outpacing supply chain capacity. YoY below zero signals factory contraction.
FRED · Monthly · AMTMNO
Cycle Maturity Score · -
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/100
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Early CycleMid CycleLate Cycle
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Yield Curve - 10Y−2Y
Sentiment - UMich index
Savings Rate - personal
JOLTS - job openings
Lead-Lag Funnel
From expectations → buffers → friction - how the next 6–18 months unfolds. Each stage leads the next by roughly 3–6 months.
1Market & Human Expectations
Yield Curve · Consumer Sentiment
Yield Curve (10Y−2Y)-
Consumer Sentiment-
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2The Buffer Zone
Savings · Real Disposable Income
Personal Savings Rate-
Real Disposable Income YoY-
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3The Cracks in the Surface
JOLTS · Initial Claims
JOLTS Openings-
Initial Claims-
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Forward Indicators

Yield Curve - 10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread

The spread between 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields. Normally positive because investors demand more for lending money longer. When it turns negative, short-term rates exceed long-term rates - an inversion.
An inversion signals the bond market expects the Fed to cut rates - typically in response to a slowdown. It has preceded every US recession since the 1960s, usually by 12–18 months. The Fed watches it as a real-time recession probability gauge.
Watch for the spread crossing below zero - that's the inversion signal. Critically, the move from inverted back to positive ("normalization") has historically coincided with the recession actually arriving. Recession shading on this chart shows that pattern clearly.
FRED · Monthly

Treasury Yields - 10-Year & 2-Year

The 10-year Treasury yield reflects long-term growth and inflation expectations. The 2-year tracks near-term Fed policy expectations. Both are set by bond market forces, not directly by the Fed.
These yields set the benchmark for all borrowing in the economy - mortgages, corporate bonds, and consumer credit all price off Treasuries. When both are elevated, the entire economy faces tighter financial conditions.
Watch when the 2-year rises above the 10-year - that's the inversion. When the 2-year drops faster than the 10-year, the market is pricing in rate cuts - often the first sign the Fed's next move is down.
FRED · Monthly

Consumer Sentiment (Univ. of Michigan)

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, surveyed monthly. Measures household perceptions of personal finances, current business conditions, and the 12-month economic outlook.
Sentiment is a leading indicator - pessimistic households cut spending before the economy officially slows. Readings below 70 have historically coincided with or preceded recessions. The Fed also watches it as a proxy for inflation expectations.
The historical average is ~85. Readings below 60 are crisis-level pessimism. For corporate strategy: sentiment below 65 signals customers entering "wait and see" mode - delay expansion Capex until above 65. For portfolio managers: sub-70 sentiment triggers the Late Cycle playbook: defensives, healthcare, staples.
FRED · Monthly

Personal Saving Rate %

The share of after-tax disposable income that households save rather than spend. A higher rate means households are building financial buffers; a lower rate means they're spending down savings or borrowing.
The savings rate is a leading indicator of spending sustainability. When savings are low and income growth slows, consumer spending becomes vulnerable to any shock. The post-pandemic drawdown has been a key driver of consumer resilience - but that buffer thins over time.
The long-run average is ~5–8%. Below 5% is a warning zone. Watch for a sharp rise in savings - that signals households turning cautious, which typically precedes a slowdown in consumption and GDP.
FRED · Monthly

Real Disposable Income - YoY %

Personal income after taxes, adjusted for inflation - the true measure of household purchasing power. What families can actually afford to buy after the government takes its share and prices erode the rest.
Real disposable income is the foundation of consumer spending. When it falls, households must draw down savings or cut spending to maintain living standards. Sustained negative readings are a leading indicator of recession.
Sustained readings below zero - especially for 3+ months - have historically coincided with recessions. The 2022 period of deeply negative real disposable income was the largest peacetime drop in household purchasing power since the 1970s.
FRED · Monthly

JOLTS - Job Openings, Quits & Layoffs

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, published monthly by the BLS. Tracks three key flows: job openings (unfilled positions), voluntary quits, and involuntary layoffs and discharges.
Together these three metrics give a fuller picture of labour market health than the unemployment rate alone. High openings show employer demand; a high quits rate shows worker confidence; rising layoffs signal employer stress. The Fed watches JOLTS closely as a proxy for wage pressure.
Watch for openings declining while layoffs rise - that combination signals rapid labour market deterioration. The quits rate is particularly important: workers only quit when confident they can find better. A falling quits rate historically precedes rising unemployment by 3–6 months.
FRED · Monthly

Initial Jobless Claims (monthly avg, thousands)

Weekly new filings for unemployment insurance, averaged to a monthly figure. Published weekly by the Department of Labor - one of the most timely labour market indicators available.
Initial claims are a leading indicator - they rise before unemployment does because layoffs precede the full rise in the unemployment rate. A sudden jump in claims is often the first hard data signal of deteriorating labour conditions.
Below 250k is historically healthy. Sustained readings above 300k signal labour market stress. Above 400k is recession territory. Watch for the trend rather than single weeks - claims are volatile due to seasonal factors and data revisions.
FRED · Weekly (monthly avg)
Affordability Stress Index · -
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/100
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AccessibleStretchedLocked Out
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Monthly P&I - median home
Pre-2022 Payment $1,686 at 3% rate
Lock-In Spread - vs ~3.8% outstanding
Months Supply - new homes
Housing Lifecycle Funnel
Housing doesn't move in isolation - it flows through three sequential stages. Builders respond to demand signals first, setting the supply pipeline. Market tightness determines how fast inventory clears. Rate and price levels seal the transaction - or kill it. Each stage feeds the next with a 6–12 month lag.
1Supply Pipeline
Permits · Housing Starts
Building Permits-
Housing Starts-
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2Market Pressure
Months Supply · Existing Sales
Months of Supply-
Existing Sales (ann.)-
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3Price & Rate Outcome
Mortgage Rate · Home Price YoY
30Y Mortgage Rate-
Case-Shiller HPI YoY-
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The Developer - Supply Pipeline

Housing Starts & Permits (Thousands)

Housing starts are the number of new residential construction projects begun each month. Building permits are issued before construction begins - they lead starts by 1–2 months and provide the clearest forward signal for new supply.
New construction adds supply to a housing-constrained market. Falling starts signal builders pulling back - typically in response to high rates, weak demand, or tighter credit. Sustained undersupply relative to household formation is a core driver of long-term home price appreciation.
For homebuilders: Permits lead starts - watch for permits to turn up as a signal to increase construction pipeline. For investors: Starts around 1.5M are considered healthy. When permits consistently exceed starts, backlogs are building - a signal for homebuilder outperformance.
FRED · Census Bureau · Monthly

Monthly Supply of New Houses

The number of months it would take to sell all homes currently on the market at the current sales pace. Measures the balance between supply and demand in the new homes market.
Supply is the swing variable in housing. Below 4 months = seller's market, prices rise. Above 6 months = buyer's market, price pressure eases. During the 2020–21 pandemic boom, supply fell below 2 months - near-record tightness that drove 20%+ annual price gains.
<4 months: Extreme seller's market - prices spike. 4–6 months: Balanced market. >6 months: Buyer's market - price cuts imminent. For first-time buyers: Target new construction when supply is above 6 months for the best negotiating leverage and builder incentives.
FRED · Census Bureau · Monthly
The Buyer - Affordability

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States, published weekly by Freddie Mac. This is the rate most American homebuyers use to finance a home purchase.
Mortgage rates directly determine housing affordability. A 1pp increase in the mortgage rate raises the monthly payment on a $400,000 loan by ~$250. When rates surge - as they did in 2022–23 - home sales freeze as buyers and sellers both wait for conditions to change.
Watch the 6–7% range as a historical affordability ceiling. The "lock-in effect" - existing owners unwilling to sell their low-rate mortgage - means transaction volume won't recover until rates fall toward ~5.5%. That clearing threshold is the key level to watch.
FRED · Freddie Mac · Weekly (monthly avg)

Median Home Sale Price ($)

The median sales price of houses sold in the United States, published quarterly by the Census Bureau. The median means half of homes sold for more, half for less - less distorted by ultra-luxury sales than the average.
The median price directly measures housing affordability for the typical buyer. Combined with mortgage rates and income growth, it determines whether homeownership is achievable for middle-income households. Rapid median price growth that outpaces income growth structurally locks buyers out of the market.
Watch the trend relative to inflation and income growth. Prices rising faster than incomes reduce affordability over time. Compare across cycles - the 2020–22 median price surge was the fastest since at least the 1960s, nearly doubling from ~$325K to ~$500K in two years.
FRED · Census Bureau · Quarterly

Existing Home Sales (Millions, Ann.)

The annualised rate of completed sales of existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Published monthly by the National Association of Realtors. Accounts for roughly 90% of total home sales in the US.
Existing home sales are the heartbeat of the housing market. Each sale generates economic activity - commissions, moving costs, furniture, renovations. A collapse in sales (as in 2022–23 from the rate shock) freezes mobility, hurts labour market flexibility, and signals stress in household balance sheets.
For real estate investors: Existing sales above 4.5M signals the market is thawing - liquidity returns. Below that, volume risk is the primary concern, not price. The market is deeply frozen; target new construction where supply is elevated and sellers are motivated.
FRED · NAR · Monthly
The Current Owner - Equity & Wealth

Home Prices - Case-Shiller YoY %

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, year-over-year % change. Covers single-family homes across the country, seasonally adjusted. One of the most widely cited measures of residential home price appreciation.
Home values represent the largest asset for most American households. Sustained price growth builds household wealth and supports consumer spending; sharp declines destroy wealth and can trigger financial stress, as seen in 2007–09. Home prices also feed into shelter CPI - a key inflation component.
Readings above 5% are hot; above 10% historically preceded corrections. Negative readings signal a market in contraction - rare outside of major recessions. The 2% lag in Case-Shiller data (it takes ~2 months to publish) means you're seeing conditions from a couple months ago.
FRED · S&P CoreLogic · Monthly

Homeownership Rate %

The percentage of occupied housing units that are owner-occupied, published quarterly by the Census Bureau. A structural measure of how much of the population participates in the wealth-building potential of homeownership.
Homeownership is the primary vehicle for wealth accumulation for American households. Sustained declines in the ownership rate - especially among younger cohorts - have long-run implications for wealth inequality. The post-2008 decline from 69% to 63% was the largest in recorded history.
The long-run average is ~65%. Readings above 66–67% have historically been associated with loose lending standards; below 63–64% reflect structural affordability barriers. Changes are slow - this is a multi-year indicator, not a monthly signal.
FRED · Census Bureau · Quarterly
Next High-Impact Event
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Event Risk Map
High Impact Medium Low
Recent Releases - Consensus vs. Actual
Indicator Actual Prior Consensus Signal
What the Recent Data Is Saying
Upcoming Risk Events
Data is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Indicators IQ is not affiliated with the Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, or World Bank.