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Will there be a recession?

Indicators IQ's model puts 12-month recession risk at 34% as of September 2026, with the overall Macro IQ stress score at 55/100. Here's the forward-looking picture.

The September 2026 Outlook Read · Late Cycle Caution

Growth is decelerating and stress is building across multiple funnels.

Growth is decelerating and stress is building across multiple funnels, but credit remains clean and labor has not broken. The economy is in a narrow window - soft landing is possible but requires conditions to stabilize soon.

Recession risk 34% Yield curve 0.88% Sentiment 55.2
Data through September 2026 · Refreshed Sep 10, 2026 · Sources: FRED, BEA
Macro IQ · composite stress across the whole economy
55/100
Moderate Stress
0 · Stable100 · Crisis
Since 2023peak 65 · Dec 2025
12-month forward risk estimate · Built from 31 scored indicators across six areas. See the full breakdown →
Recession Risk
34%
Watch Zone12-mo forward
10Y–3M Yield Curve
0.88%
Sep 2026
Consumer Sentiment
55.2
+5.7Jul 2026
Jobless Claims
206K
Aug 2026
Savings Rate
3.0%
+0.4ppJul 2026

What's driving the score.

Six areas of the economy, each scored 0–100. Higher means more stress.

Housing
Severe Friction
 76 Consumer
Watch Zone
 63 Labor
Balanced
 56 Monetary
Mildly Restrictive
 35 Industrial
Slowing
 50 Credit
Healthy
 18

The yield curve since 2021.

The 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread. Below zero — inverted — has preceded every US recession since the 1960s.

10Y–3M Treasury spread 0% inversion line

AI Signal Synthesis

The Composite Macro IQ has moved 0 points over the last 36 months, driven primarily by housing strain, weak sentiment, and industrial softness. The rise has been cumulative rather than abrupt. The main tension remains soft confidence against still-positive spending, which typically resolves through weaker demand rather than a fresh acceleration.

What to watch next.

Sep11 CPI.
Sep16 Retail Sales.
Sep17 Housing Starts.

Quick answers.

The questions people actually ask about where the economy is headed, answered from the data above.

Will there be a recession in the next 12 months?
Indicators IQ's recession model puts 12-month forward risk at 34% — watch zone. Mixed signals - growth is intact but headwinds are building.
What is the yield curve saying right now?
The 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread is 0.88%. An inverted (negative) curve has preceded every US recession since the 1960s; the curve is currently positive, which historically points away from imminent recession.
How do consumers feel about the economy?
Consumer sentiment sits at 55.2 — depressed by historical standards — while households save 3.0% of income and initial jobless claims run at 206K a week. People feel worse than the hard data looks.
What is the Macro IQ score?
A 0-100 composite stress score built from 31 scored indicators across six areas of the economy — higher means more stress. The current read is 55 (moderate stress), and the regime call is “Late Cycle Caution”.