The trend since 2019.
The latest available read: BBK Leading Index is at -0.60 as of July 2026. Source: FRED · BBKMLEIX.
Why it matters.
This index predicts economic slowdown or recession within the next few months, so a negative reading suggests tougher times ahead for jobs and growth. If you're employed, planning to borrow, or invested in stocks, this forward-looking signal matters because it often moves before the economy actually cools.
Where it fits.
BBK Leading Index feeds the Outlook view — one of the six areas behind the site's Macro IQ score.