The trend over time.
The latest available read: BBK Leading Index is at -0.34 as of August 2026. Source: FRED · BBKMLEIX. CSV and PNG downloads cover the selected date range.
What BBK Leading Index measures.
The Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index for the U.S. economy, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, an index that combines many monthly indicators into a single read on where economic activity is heading.
Higher readings point to stronger activity ahead and falling readings to weakening momentum. It is a statistical summary, so its signals can be wrong.
Why it matters.
This index predicts economic slowdown or recession within the next few months, so a negative reading suggests tougher times ahead for jobs and growth. If you're employed, planning to borrow, or invested in stocks, this forward-looking signal matters because it often moves before the economy actually cools.
Where it fits.
BBK Leading Index is covered on the Outlook page.