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Is the US economy actually growing?

GDP is growing at 1.50% annualized as of Q2 2026. Industrial production is up 1.08% over the past year, with factories running at 76.3% of capacity.

The September 2026 Growth Read

Factory output is growing slowly.

Industrial production has swung sharply over the past year, currently rising only 1.08% annually. Economic growth has collapsed from 4.7% to 1.5%, suggesting the broader engine is sputtering.

Slowing GDP 1.50% Capacity 76.3%
Data through September 2026 · Refreshed Sep 10, 2026 · Sources: FRED, BEA
Industrial pipeline stress · higher = more stress
50/100
Slowing
0 · Humming100 · Stalled
Recent trendpeak 64 · Jan 2025
Factories are busy but not ramping up output much, which means orders are soft and companies are cautious. How this score is built →
1.50%
Q2 2026
1.08%
-0.2ppJul 2026
76.3%
+0.1ppJul 2026
5.01%
-2.1ppJul 2026
55.2
+5.7Jul 2026

Production vs consumption since 2021.

Industrial production is what factories make. Retail sales are what households buy.

Industrial production (YoY) Retail sales (YoY)

What changed

Industrial production has swung sharply over the past year, currently rising only 1.08% annually. Economic growth has collapsed from 4.7% to 1.5%, suggesting the broader engine is sputtering.

What it means for you

Factories are busy but not ramping up output much, which means orders are soft and companies are cautious. For you, this signals weaker job creation ahead and possibly lower wage pressure as businesses hold back on hiring. Watch whether production starts climbing again or keeps bumping along near zero growth—that will tell you if the slowdown is temporary or becoming entrenched.

What to watch next.

Sep11 CPI.
Sep16 Retail Sales.
Sep17 Housing Starts.

Latest growth analysis.

Written after each data release. Plain English, no jargon.

Quick answers.

The questions people actually ask about economic growth, answered from the data above.

How fast is the US economy growing?
US GDP grew at 1.50% annualized in Q2 2026. Industrial production is up 1.08% year-over-year, and retail sales are up 5.01%.
Is US manufacturing in a recession?
Factories are running at 76.3% of capacity, below the ~80% level that marks a hot industrial economy. Industrial production is up 1.08% over the past year — growing, but slowly.
Are consumers still spending?
Retail sales are up 5.01% year-over-year even with consumer sentiment at 55.2 — people feel worse than they spend. Actual spending is what feeds GDP.
What is the Industrial Pipeline score?
A 0-100 score built from capacity utilization, industrial production, GDP growth, and demand signals. Higher means more stress in the production economy. The current read is 50 — slowing.