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Is the US economy actually growing?

GDP is growing at 2.10% annualized as of July 2026. Industrial production is up 1.14% over the past year, with factories running at 76.1% of capacity.

The July 2026 Growth Read

Manufacturing output is weakening even as factories operate near full capacity.

Industrial production has slowed to just 1.14% annual growth while capacity utilization sits at 76.1%, showing factories are running hard but orders are thinning. GDP growth remains solid at 2.1%, but the manufacturing sector's deterioration suggests this pace may not hold.

Slowing GDP 2.10% Capacity 76.1%
Data through July 2026 · Refreshed Jul 28, 2026 · Sources: FRED, BEA
Industrial pipeline stress · higher = more stress
49/100
Slowing
0 · Humming100 · Stalled
Recent trendpeak 64 · Jan 2025
Factories are running near maximum but producing less year-over-year, which means demand for goods is cooling faster than supply can adjust. How this score is built →
GDP Growth
2.10%
July 2026
Industrial Production
1.14%
-0.4ppJuly 2026
Capacity Utilization
76.1%
-0.0ppJuly 2026
Retail Sales YoY
7.19%
-0.6ppJuly 2026
Consumer Sentiment
44.8
-5.0July 2026

Production vs consumption since 2021.

Industrial production is what factories make. Retail sales are what households buy.

Industrial production (YoY) Retail sales (YoY)

What changed

Industrial production has slowed to just 1.14% annual growth while capacity utilization sits at 76.1%, showing factories are running hard but orders are thinning. GDP growth remains solid at 2.1%, but the manufacturing sector's deterioration suggests this pace may not hold.

What it means for you

Factories are running near maximum but producing less year-over-year, which means demand for goods is cooling faster than supply can adjust. If you work in manufacturing, retail, or supply chains, this slowdown could ripple into hiring freezes or wage pressure. Watch job creation in construction and manufacturing over the next few months—if those numbers roll over, it signals the weakness is spreading beyond the factory floor.

What to watch next.

Jul31 PCE Inflation report. Watch for core PCE to confirm whether the uptick to 3.41% reflects a genuine reversal or noise. The Fed targets 2% on this measure.
Aug7 Nonfarm Payrolls report. The 57,000 print was weak. A rebound above 150,000 would ease recession fears; another decline would deepen labor market concerns.
Jul29 GDP release. Current growth stands at 2.10%. A slowdown here combined with weak jobs data could force the Fed to cut rates sooner than expected.

Latest growth analysis.

Written after each data release. Plain English, no jargon.

Retail Sales Yoy

Retail Sales June 2026: Consumer Spending Up 6.71%

Retail sales rose 6.71% from a year ago, still a strong pace, but growth cooled from the spring peak. Americans are spending, just not accel

July 2026
All analysis →

Quick answers.

The questions people actually ask about economic growth, answered from the data above.

How fast is the US economy growing?
US GDP is growing at 2.10% annualized as of July 2026. Industrial production is up 1.14% year-over-year, and retail sales are up 7.19%.
Is US manufacturing in a recession?
Factories are running at 76.1% of capacity, below the ~80% level that marks a hot industrial economy. Industrial production is up 1.14% over the past year — growing, but slowly.
Are consumers still spending?
Retail sales are up 7.19% year-over-year even with consumer sentiment at 44.8 — people feel worse than they spend. Actual spending is what feeds GDP.
What is the Industrial Pipeline score?
A 0-100 score built from capacity utilization, industrial production, GDP growth, and demand signals. Higher means more stress in the production economy. The current read is 49 — slowing.