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Can you afford a house right now?

The average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.71% as of Sep 2026, and the median home sale price is $411K. Each metric below shows its own observation period.

The September 2026 Housing Read

Mortgage rates and stagnant wage growth are keeping home ownership difficult for most buyers despite slight price relief.

Rates have held steady above 6.7% while paychecks grew just 0.45% annually, leaving families unable to afford the monthly payment. Home prices have edged down but not enough to offset the income and rate squeeze.

Severe Friction Mortgage 6.71% Median price $411K
Data through September 2026 · Refreshed Sep 10, 2026 · Sources: FRED, Census
Housing stress score · higher = more friction for buyers
76/100
Severe Friction
0 · Affordable100 · Locked Out
Recent trendpeak 77 · Dec 2022
If you are trying to buy a house, your paycheck is not keeping pace with what lenders charge to borrow, and prices are not falling fast enough to help. How this score is built →
6.71%
Sep 2026
$411K
Apr 2026
0.45%
-0.1ppJul 2026
3.0%
+0.4ppJul 2026
9.6
+1.1Jul 2026

Mortgage rates vs home prices since 2021.

The rate sets your monthly payment. Price growth tells you whether waiting costs you.

30-year fixed mortgage rate Home prices YoY (Case-Shiller)

What changed

Rates have held steady above 6.7% while paychecks grew just 0.45% annually, leaving families unable to afford the monthly payment. Home prices have edged down but not enough to offset the income and rate squeeze.

What it means for you

If you are trying to buy a house, your paycheck is not keeping pace with what lenders charge to borrow, and prices are not falling fast enough to help. This matters because it locks millions out of building wealth through ownership and forces renters to keep paying landlords instead. Watch whether real disposable income starts to move higher consistently—that is the only lever that can ease the affordability crisis without rates falling.

What to watch next.

Sep11 CPI.
Sep16 Retail Sales.
Sep17 Housing Starts.

Latest housing analysis.

Written after each data release. Plain English, no jargon.

Quick answers.

The questions people actually ask about the housing market, answered from the data above.

What is the current 30-year mortgage rate?
As of Sep 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.71%. The median home sale price stands at $411K.
Is now a good time to buy a house?
Affordability is the constraint: mortgage rates at 6.71% while real disposable income grows just 0.45% a year. Supply is looser than during the pandemic — 9.6 months of new-home inventory — so buyers have more room to negotiate, but the monthly payment math is what keeps most people out.
Are home prices going up or down?
Home prices (Case-Shiller) are moving 1.52% year-over-year, with the median sale price at $411K. Elevated inventory and stretched affordability are limiting how fast prices can rise.
What is the housing stress score?
A 0-100 score built from mortgage rates, home prices, income growth, savings, housing starts, and supply. Higher means more friction for buyers. The current read is 76 — severe friction.