Housing
Written October 1, before the latest existing home sales, CPI inflation and housing starts. The numbers and charts on this page are current; figures in the text may not be.
Mortgage rates have jumped. Home prices have barely moved.
The 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.03% on September 24, its highest in 12 months, though the median new-home price of $410,700 is below a year ago. The payment, not the price, is what has moved.
The Briefing · Written October 1, 2026 · Numbers and charts update with each release
Mortgage rates have climbed back to their highest level in a year
30-year fixed mortgage rate, weekly, %
Source: Freddie Mac (MORTGAGE30US), Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
The mortgage rate was 5.98% on February 26, the low of the past two years. It was 6.67% on August 13 and 7.03% on September 24, a rise of 0.36 percentage points over six weekly readings. Only one reading in the two-year chart, 7.04% on January 16, 2025, was higher. The price of a house has barely changed in that time: the median new-home price was $410,700 in the second quarter, $5,400 below a year earlier.
On a 30-year loan with 20% down, principal and interest on a median new home come to $2,193 a month at 7.03%, against $1,966 at the low. Buyers are not rushing in: existing home sales were 3.98 million in August, down from 4.06 million in July. New-home supply of 8.5 months is below the 9.9 months of January. The read would change if the mortgage rate fell back toward 6.67%, or if sales moved clearly above 4.06 million.
What 7.03% means for you
The same house costs more each month than at the low
At 7.03% the monthly payment on a median new home is $2,193, compared with $1,966 at 5.98%. That is $227 more, with 20% down on a 30-year loan.
The sticker price is slightly lower than a year ago
The median new-home price was $410,700 in the second quarter, against $416,100 a year earlier. The price is $12,400 below the first-quarter 2025 high.
Income growth after inflation is positive but modest
Disposable income after inflation was 1.3% higher than a year earlier in August. The savings rate fell to 4.1%, its lowest in the past two years.
The next test: what would change the answer
Moderate confidence. Mortgage rates are at a 12-month high while prices have not risen, so the monthly cost is the main obstacle. Sales and construction are soft, not collapsing.
The 30-year mortgage rate falling back to the 6.67% of mid-August or lower
Existing home sales rising above the 4.06 million of July
Months of new-home supply moving back toward the 9.9 high of January
Questions readers ask
Is it a good time to buy a house?
The mortgage rate of 7.03% is the highest in 12 months, which makes the monthly payment costly. The median new-home price of $410,700 is $5,400 below a year ago, so price is the lesser problem.
How much more does a mortgage cost now than at the low?
On a median new home with 20% down and a 30-year loan, principal and interest are $2,193 a month at 7.03%. At the 5.98% low they were $1,966, a difference of $227 a month.
Are house prices falling?
The median new-home price was $410,700 in the second quarter, down from $416,100 a year earlier but up from $408,500 in the first quarter. Home price growth was 1.93% in July, up from 0.82% in February.
Are people still buying homes?
Existing home sales were 3.98 million in August, down from 4.06 million in July and 4.03 million a year earlier. That matches the lowest level since the series starts in February 2025.
Is there a glut of new homes?
New-home supply was 8.5 months in August, down from 9.0 in July and the same as a year ago. Housing starts were 1,275 thousand, below the 1,522 thousand peak of March.