The economy is stressed — but it hasn't broken yet.
Inflation is easing while hiring bounced back, but growth is fading and consumers are pulling back.
Stress level
StableModerate StressCrisis
CPI Inflation
3.30%
Still elevated but trending down from recent peaks
Core PCE
3.34%
Stuck well above Fed's 2% target despite slight easing
Unemployment
4.1%
Low and holding steady at 4.1%
GDP Growth
1.50%
Slowed sharply to 1.5% annualized pace
Fed Funds Rate
3.75%
Holding at 3.75% after recent cuts
What's behind it.
The latest data, explained like you'd explain it to a friend.
Data through Sep 2026 · Updated Sep 10, 2026
What changed
Inflation eased again. CPI fell to 3.30% from 3.46%, marking continued improvement after a volatile year. Core PCE held flat at 3.34%, still above the Fed's 2% target.
Job growth bounced back. Employers added 162,000 jobs last month, a sharp jump from only 21,000 the prior month. Hiring is stabilizing after a shaky start to the year.
Growth slowed sharply. GDP expanded just 1.50% on an annualized basis, a steep decline from 4.7% earlier in the year. Economic momentum has deteriorated significantly.
What it means for you
Relief at the grocery store. Prices are still rising faster than the Fed wants, but the pace is easing. Your paycheck should feel slightly less stretched if this trend holds.
Job market resilience matters. Hiring is recovering after a weak spell. If this continues, employers will keep adding positions, which means less job-hunting anxiety and steadier wage growth.
Economy is downshifting. Slower growth can mean fewer promotions, less competitive salary increases, and tighter corporate budgets. A sluggish economy creates headwinds even when layoffs don't.
What to watch next
Sep11
CPI.
Sep16
Retail Sales.
Sep17
Housing Starts.
What the data is telling you.
Six areas of the economy, worst first — each with the number that defines it right now.
6.71%
30-Year Mortgage Rate
Sep 2026
Mortgage rates and stagnant wage growth are keeping home ownership difficult for most buyers despite slight price relief.
What's behind it: If you are trying to buy a house, your paycheck is not keeping pace with what lenders charge to borrow, and prices are not falling fast enough to help. This matters because it locks millions out of building wealth through ownership and forces renters to keep paying landlords instead.
The takeaway: Watch whether real disposable income starts to move higher consistently—that is the only lever that can ease the affordability crisis without rates falling.
—Holding steady vs. last read
Median Home Price $411K
Real Disposable Income YoY 0.45%
Personal Savings Rate 3.0%
4.1%
Unemployment Rate
Aug 2026
Consumer mood and finances are weakening even as people lean on credit to keep spending alive.
What's behind it: People say they feel worse about their finances and are running down their cushion to pay for everyday life. When your paycheck barely keeps pace with inflation and you have little left to save, one unexpected bill or job loss becomes a real crisis.
The takeaway: Watch whether savings stabilize or drop further—if it keeps falling, spending will eventually stall because there is nothing left to draw from.
▲Pushing the economy toward strain
Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.09%
Consumer Sentiment 55.2
Real Disposable Income YoY 0.45%
7.27M
JOLTS Job Openings
Jul 2026
▲ +0.09M
Workers have less bargaining power now as job growth has slowed and wage gains are cooling.
What's behind it: Your ability to negotiate for better pay or move to a new job is weaker than it was months ago. If wages keep falling and employers have fewer reasons to compete for workers, your earning power could stall.
The takeaway: Watch whether companies continue to hire at current levels or start cutting jobs—that will tell you if the market has truly cooled or is headed toward real trouble.
▼Easing off recent stress
Nonfarm Payroll Change 162
Quits Rate 1.9%
Initial Jobless Claims 206K
76.3%
Capacity Utilization
Jul 2026
▲ +0.1pp
Factory output is growing slowly.
What's behind it: Factories are busy but not ramping up output much, which means orders are soft and companies are cautious. For you, this signals weaker job creation ahead and possibly lower wage pressure as businesses hold back on hiring.
The takeaway: Watch whether production starts climbing again or keeps bumping along near zero growth—that will tell you if the slowdown is temporary or becoming entrenched.
—Holding steady vs. last read
Industrial Production YoY 1.08%
GDP Growth 1.50%
Fed Funds Rate 3.75%
3.75%
Fed Funds Rate
Sep 2026
The Federal Reserve has eased rates enough to shift policy from restrictive to mildly restrictive, though inflation remains sticky.
What's behind it: You are paying less in real terms to borrow for a home or business loan than you were a year ago, which makes mortgages and credit cards slightly easier to afford. This matters because the Fed was intentionally making money expensive to fight inflation, and now it has backed off, giving households and businesses some breathing room.
The takeaway: Watch whether price growth stays above 3% over the next few months, because if inflation stays elevated the Fed will stop cutting rates and may even raise them again.
—Holding steady vs. last read
Real Policy Rate 0.41%
CPI Inflation 3.30%
Core PCE Inflation 3.34%
2.67%
HY Credit Spread (OAS)
Sep 2026
Credit conditions are slipping as borrowing accelerates and risk signals emerge despite low absolute stress levels.
What's behind it: People are borrowing more aggressively just as the credit market's calm veneer shows its first real cracks. For anyone carrying debt or thinking about a major purchase, this matters because rising delinquencies and wider spreads historically precede tighter lending and higher borrowing costs.
The takeaway: The next signal to watch is whether credit card delinquencies tick back up toward the 3% levels we saw a year ago, which would suggest the credit cycle is turning.
▲Pushing the economy toward strain
Baa-10Y Credit Spread 1.57%
Credit Card Delinquency Rate 2.85%
Consumer Credit Growth 2.58%
Quick answers.
The questions people actually ask, answered from the data above.
Is the US economy in a recession right now?
As of September 2026 the Macro IQ score is 55/100 (moderate stress) — pressure is not the same as contraction. GDP grew at 1.50% annualized in Q2 2026 and unemployment is 4.1%. Our model puts 12-month recession risk at 34%, versus a ~15% historical base rate.
What is the current US inflation rate?
CPI inflation is 3.30% year-over-year as of Jul 2026, and core PCE — the measure the Fed actually targets — is 3.34%. The Fed's goal is 2%.
Will the Fed cut interest rates soon?
The Fed's policy rate stands at 3.75%. Whether cuts come depends on inflation returning toward the 2% target — each CPI and PCE release signals the direction.
What is the Macro IQ score?
A 0–100 stress score built from 31 official indicators (FRED, BEA, Census) across six areas of the economy: housing, consumer, labor, monetary policy, industry, and credit. 0 means stable, 100 means crisis. The current read is 55 — moderate stress.