Every figure on this site traces back to a primary-source series and a stated transformation. We track 32 indicators from FRED and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and each one is covered on a page for the part of the economy it belongs to.
The 32 indicators.
Source series are the exact identifiers the pipeline pulls.
| Indicator | Source series | Shown as | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation & the Fed5 indicators | |||
| CPI Inflation | FRED · CPIAUCSL | Change from a year earlier, % | Derived from CPIAUCSL monthly observations |
| Core PCE Inflation | FRED · PCEPILFE | Change from a year earlier, % | Derived from Core PCE monthly observations |
| Fed Funds Rate | FRED · DFEDTARU | Month-end level, % | Fed funds target rate upper bound (daily, resampled monthly) |
| Real Policy Rate | derived | Derived from other indicators | Computed as fed funds rate minus core PCE inflation |
| 10Y-3M Yield Curve | FRED · T10Y3M | Level, % | 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield, daily |
| Jobs & Labor7 indicators | |||
| Unemployment Rate | FRED · UNRATE | Level, % | Monthly unemployment rate |
| Nonfarm Payroll Change | FRED · PAYEMS | Monthly change, thousands | Monthly payroll change |
| JOLTS Job Openings | FRED · JTSJOL | Level, millions | JOLTS openings in millions |
| Quits Rate | FRED · JTSQUR | Level, % | JOLTS quits rate |
| Initial Jobless Claims | FRED · ICSA | Level | Initial jobless claims weekly level |
| Average Hourly Earnings YoY | FRED · CES0500000003 | Change from a year earlier, % | Average hourly earnings YoY |
| U-6 Underemployment Rate | FRED · U6RATE | Level, % | U-6 unemployment rate |
| Growth5 indicators | |||
| GDP Growth | BEA · A191RL | Annualized quarterly growth, % | Real GDP growth, seasonally adjusted annual rate |
| Real GDP Per Capita YoY | FRED · A939RX0Q048SBEA | Change from a year earlier, % | Real GDP per capita, quarterly YoY pct change |
| Industrial Production YoY | FRED · INDPRO | Change from a year earlier, % | Industrial production YoY |
| Capacity Utilization | FRED · TCU | Level, % | Capacity utilization |
| Manufacturing Output YoY | FRED · IPMANSICS | Change from a year earlier, % | Manufacturing output, change from a year earlier |
| Housing6 indicators | |||
| 30-Year Mortgage Rate | FRED · MORTGAGE30US | Level, % | Weekly Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate |
| Median Home Price | FRED · MSPUS | Level, $ | Median sales price of houses sold |
| Existing Home Sales | FRED · EXHOSLUSM495S | Level, millions | Existing home sales in millions |
| Home Price Growth YoY | FRED · CSUSHPISA | Change from a year earlier, % | Case-Shiller national home price index YoY |
| Housing Starts | FRED · HOUST | Level, thousands | New privately owned housing units started, annual rate |
| Months Supply of New Homes | FRED · MSACSR | Level, months | Months supply of new houses |
| Consumer4 indicators | |||
| Consumer Sentiment | FRED · UMCSENT | Index level | University of Michigan consumer sentiment |
| Retail Sales YoY | FRED · RSXFS | Change from a year earlier, % | Retail sales excluding food services YoY |
| Real Disposable Income YoY | FRED · DSPIC96 | Change from a year earlier, % | Real disposable personal income YoY |
| Personal Savings Rate | FRED · PSAVERT | Level, % | Personal savings rate |
| Credit4 indicators | |||
| HY Credit Spread (OAS) | FRED · BAMLH0A0HYM2 | Level, % | ICE BofA US high-yield bond spread over Treasuries, daily |
| Baa-10Y Credit Spread | FRED · BAA10Y | Level, % | Moody's Baa corporate bond yield minus the 10-year Treasury, daily |
| Credit Card Delinquency Rate | FRED · DRCCLACBS | Level, % | Share of credit card balances 30+ days past due at commercial banks |
| Consumer Credit Growth | FRED · TOTALSL | Change from a year earlier, % | Total consumer credit growth YoY |
| Outlook1 indicators | |||
| BBK Leading Index | FRED · BBKMLEIX | Index level | Brave-Butters-Kelley index of economic activity |
How the data is refreshed.
Release-driven, with revisions followed rather than ignored.
Release days
A scheduler checks the release calendar every day. On a release day it pulls the new data at 3 PM ET and tries again at 6 PM ET, then the next day, until the source has published.
Revisions
Each refresh re-pulls the last two years of every FRED series, so revised history replaces the old values. Agencies also revise on their own schedule, such as BEA's annual GDP revisions, and the site follows them.
Gaps and lags
A month an agency did not publish, such as October 2025 for CPI and several BLS series, is shown as a gap, never as zero. Consumer sentiment reaches us through FRED, which posts the University of Michigan survey about a month after the headline release, so its latest value trails the headline.
How figures are compared.
The same conventions apply on every page.
Changes
Monthly and quarterly series compare the latest reading with the previous one. Weekly and daily series (the mortgage rate, jobless claims, credit spreads and the yield curve) compare with a week earlier. "A year ago" means the same month a year earlier.
Rounding
Differences are computed from the stored, unrounded values and then rounded, so a gap can differ by 0.01 from subtracting two rounded figures.
Definitions
Median home price is the Census/HUD median sales price of new houses sold. The home price index is the Case-Shiller national index. The Fed funds rate is the upper bound of the target range.
How the write-ups are checked.
Numbers come from the data; words are checked against it.
Figures
Charts, tables and release dates are computed from the stored data every time a page loads, so they update with each release.
Analysis
The written analysis is drafted in plain English. Every number in it must match the stored data, and an independent review recomputes each claim before it is published. Each page shows the date its analysis was written, because the words can lag a release until they are updated.