Jobs
Written October 1, before the latest jobs report and CPI inflation. The numbers and charts on this page are current; figures in the text may not be.
Hiring came back. Pay and openings didn't follow.
Payrolls rose 162,000 in August after a summer averaging 71,000, and unemployment held at 4.1%. But openings slipped to 7.08M and wage growth fell to 3.09%.
The Briefing · Written October 1, 2026 · Numbers and charts update with each release
August was the best month since March in a choppy series
Monthly change in nonfarm payrolls, thousands
Source: BLS (PAYEMS). October 2025 includes the shutdown-period reading.
The job market is not weakening on the headline numbers. Payrolls added 162,000 jobs in August, 141,000 more than July and a swing from the 70,000 lost a year earlier. Unemployment held at 4.1%, down from 4.3% a year ago and 0.4 points below its 4.5% high of November 2025. The summer was soft, though: June to August averaged 71,000 a month, half the 142,000 average of March to May.
The weak spots are demand and pay. Job openings fell to 7.08M in August from 7.34M, and the quits rate is stuck at 1.9%, so few people are quitting for better offers. Average hourly earnings grew 3.09%, the slowest pace in two years, against CPI of 3.35%. Layoffs are not the problem: initial claims are 197,000, and the U-6 underemployment rate fell 0.2 points to 7.7%.
What +162K means for you
Your pay is losing to prices
Wage growth of 3.09% against CPI of 3.35% means the average paycheck buys slightly less than a year ago, when pay was growing 3.98%.
There are jobs, but fewer bidding wars
Openings are down from 7.34M in July. With quits at 1.9%, expect employers to negotiate harder than they did a year ago.
Your job is comparatively safe
Initial claims are 197,000, below the 219,000 to 259,000 weekly range of September 2025. Layoffs are low; pay is lagging prices.
The next test: what would change the answer
Moderate confidence. The labor market passes the volume test and fails the price test. The next two jobs reports decide whether August was a turn or another swing.
Payrolls falling back below zero, as in February's −156,000, which would make August the outlier rather than the trend.
Initial claims rising from 197,000 toward the 219,000 to 259,000 range of last September, the first sign that firms are cutting rather than pausing.
Wage growth turning up from 3.09% while openings hold above 7M, which would show employers competing for staff again.
Questions readers ask
Is the US job market weakening in 2026?
Not on hiring. Payrolls rose 162,000 in August and unemployment held at 4.1%, down from 4.3% a year ago. The weak spots are job openings (7.08M, down from 7.34M) and wage growth (3.09%).
What is the current US unemployment rate?
4.1% in August 2026, unchanged from July. The recent peak was 4.5% in November 2025, and the broader U-6 underemployment rate is 7.7%.
How many jobs were added in August 2026?
162,000, 141,000 more than the 21,000 added in July. June to August averaged 71,000 a month.
Are wages keeping up with inflation?
No. Average hourly earnings grew 3.09% in August against CPI of 3.35%, a decline in pay after inflation of about 0.27 percentage points.
What do job openings and quits say about the labor market?
Openings of 7.08M and a quits rate of 1.9% describe a market with jobs available but little bargaining power for workers: fewer people are quitting for better offers.