Credit conditions are slipping as borrowing accelerates and risk signals emerge despite low absolute stress levels.
Consumer credit is growing faster than normal after months of near-zero expansion, while credit card delinquencies and corporate bond spreads remain historically calm. Watch whether this borrowing surge slows or continues, as sustained acceleration could signal trouble ahead.
Spreads vs. delinquencies since 2021.
Credit spreads are what the market charges risky borrowers. Delinquencies are who's actually missing payments.
What changed
Consumer credit is growing faster than normal after months of near-zero expansion, while credit card delinquencies and corporate bond spreads remain historically calm. Watch whether this borrowing surge slows or continues, as sustained acceleration could signal trouble ahead.
What it means for you
People are borrowing more aggressively just as the credit market's calm veneer shows its first real cracks. For anyone carrying debt or thinking about a major purchase, this matters because rising delinquencies and wider spreads historically precede tighter lending and higher borrowing costs. The next signal to watch is whether credit card delinquencies tick back up toward the 3% levels we saw a year ago, which would suggest the credit cycle is turning.
What to watch next.
Quick answers.
The questions people actually ask about credit markets, answered from the data above.