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Are consumers actually spending?

Consumer sentiment sits at 55.2 as of Jul 2026, yet retail sales are up 5.01% year-over-year — a gap between how people feel and how they spend.

The September 2026 Consumer Read

Consumer mood and finances are weakening even as people lean on credit to keep spending alive.

Sentiment hit a deeply depressed 55.2, dragging the overall picture down despite modest retail gains. Real incomes are barely growing and savings have been drained to historic lows, a pattern that cannot hold indefinitely.

Watch Zone Sentiment 55.2 Retail sales 5.01%
Data through September 2026 · Refreshed Sep 10, 2026 · Sources: FRED, BEA, Univ. of Michigan
Sentiment-spending gap · higher = wider gap
63/100
Watch Zone
0 · Resilient100 · Fragile
Recent trendpeak 75 · Dec 2025
People say they feel worse about their finances and are running down their cushion to pay for everyday life. How this score is built →
55.2
+5.7Jul 2026
5.01%
-2.1ppJul 2026
0.45%
-0.1ppJul 2026
2.58%
+0.1ppJul 2026
3.09%
-0.1ppAug 2026

Feeling vs. spending since 2021.

Consumer sentiment is how people say they feel. Retail sales are what they actually buy.

Consumer sentiment Retail sales (YoY)

What changed

Sentiment hit a deeply depressed 55.2, dragging the overall picture down despite modest retail gains. Real incomes are barely growing and savings have been drained to historic lows, a pattern that cannot hold indefinitely.

What it means for you

People say they feel worse about their finances and are running down their cushion to pay for everyday life. When your paycheck barely keeps pace with inflation and you have little left to save, one unexpected bill or job loss becomes a real crisis. Watch whether savings stabilize or drop further—if it keeps falling, spending will eventually stall because there is nothing left to draw from.

What to watch next.

Sep11 CPI.
Sep16 Retail Sales.
Sep17 Housing Starts.

Latest consumer analysis.

Written after each data release. Plain English, no jargon.

Quick answers.

The questions people actually ask about consumer spending, answered from the data above.

Are consumers still spending money?
Yes — retail sales are up 5.01% year-over-year as of Jul 2026, even as consumer sentiment sits at 55.2, near multi-year lows.
Why does spending stay strong if confidence is so weak?
Real income growth is only 0.45% a year, but consumer credit is growing 2.58% — households are increasingly financing spending with debt rather than income gains, so the mood and the money don't move together.
Is this spending sustainable?
Wage growth of 3.09% a year is barely outpacing prices, and unemployment sits at 4.1%. If income growth doesn't catch up or credit growth doesn't cool, spending eventually has to slow or defaults start rising.
What is the Sentiment-Spending Gap score?
A 0-100 score built from consumer sentiment, retail sales, real income growth, and consumer credit growth. Higher means a wider gap between how people feel and how they're actually spending. The current read is 63 — watch zone.