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10Y-3M Yield Curve: where it stands right now.

0.69% +0.00 vs prior month July 2026 · updated daily

The 10Y-3M yield curve sits at 0.69%, holding steady after climbing from around 0.50% a few weeks ago. It remains well above the danger zone near zero where recession fears typically spike, suggesting the bond market sees no immediate economic crisis ahead.

The trend since 2019.

The current read: 10Y-3M Yield Curve is at 0.69% as of July 2026. Source: FRED/BEA via Indicators IQ.

Why it matters.

When this spread shrinks toward zero, it historically predicts a recession within 12 months, so your job security and asset values come under pressure. Right now it's fat enough to signal confidence in growth, which keeps borrowing costs reasonable for mortgages and business loans.

Where it fits.

10Y-3M Yield Curve feeds the Inflation & the Fed view — one of the six areas behind the site's Macro IQ score.