The trend over time.
The latest available read: 10Y-3M Yield Curve is at 0.78% as of October 2026. Source: FRED · T10Y3M. Shown as monthly averages of the daily series. CSV and PNG downloads cover the selected date range.
What 10Y-3M Yield Curve measures.
The difference between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, in percentage points, published daily by the Federal Reserve (via FRED series T10Y3M).
A negative value means short rates are above long rates, an inversion. Inversions of this spread have preceded most U.S. recessions in recent decades, usually by several months to over a year, although the timing is irregular and it is not a perfect signal.
Why it matters.
When long-term bond yields trade much higher than short-term ones, it suggests investors expect steady economic growth, which typically keeps borrowing costs reasonable for mortgages and business loans.
Where it fits.
10Y-3M Yield Curve is covered on the Inflation & the Fed page.